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More than five decades in economic research. Balanced, independent and objective analysis and forecasts

Category: Macroeconomy

April 2023

Macroeconomic and public finance situation in 2022 (in Hungarian)

September 2022

Macroeconomic and fiscal developments in the first half of 2022

April 2022

Macroeconomic and fiscal developments in 2021

August 2021

Impacts of a changing world-economic environment (including Brexit) on the EU economy and on the Hungarian economy and state budget (in Hungarian)

August 2021

The impact of COVID-19, sustainability and socio-economic development on Hungary’s competitiveness (in Hungarian)

August 2021

Overview of the macro economy and public finances in the first half of 2021 (in Hungarian)

April 2021

Overview of the macro economy and public finances in 2020 (in Hungarian)

April - September 2020

Macroeconomic and public finance situation in 2019 and the first half of 2020 (in Hungarian)

September 2020

The Restart of European Economy and Its Impact on Central and Eastern Europe

February 2020

Study on factors influencing Hungarian companies’ innovation activities

January 2020

Some key factors of catching up of the Hungarian economy

2018

Budgetary position in the light of the world economic conditions (in Hungarian)

2016

The tendencies of trade in value-added in the OECD countries

2016

Survey and study paper on the Hungarian investment environment

2015

Productivity and convergence- the prospects of Hungary. Tendencies and correlations

2014

Methodological support for the determination of indicators and base value

2014

Preliminary study on macroeconomic and budgetary forecasting methodologies

2014

Shifts in the global economy and their impact on Hungarian export market possibilities, the economic growth and the general government budget

2014

Market survey scope on export credit insurance needs/options for SMEs

2014

Study on the compliance by member states on the time needed to get licences and permits to take up and perform the specific activity of an enterprise as from beginning of 2014

2013

Development of a micro-based macromodell

2013

Compilation of development cadastre on the completed developments

2013

The role of the German economy in Hungarian economic performance

2013

Expert evaluation network: delivering policy analysis on the performance of cohesion policy 2007-2013

2012

Support to the creation of Cohesion Policy position: the rippling effect of the Central Hungarian region

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Economic forecasts

2024
Fact
2025
Forecast
2026
Forecast
GDP 0.5% 0.4% 2.5%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -11.1% -4.8% 3.0%
Industrial Production -4.0% -1.7% 3.0%
Gross Salaries 13.2% 8.8% 9.5%
Unemployment Rate* 4.5% 4.5% 4.4%
Current+Capital Account** 2.6% 2.0% 1.0%
General Government** -4.9% -4.8% -4.8%
Consumer Price Index* 3.8% 4.7% 3.9%
MNB Base Rate*** 6.5% 6.5% 6.0%
10-Year Yield*** 6.55% 7.0% 6.5%
*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

Kopint-Tárki commentary

30.10.2025. GDP growth slightly accelerated in Q3

According to the first estimate, both the unadjusted and the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 0.6% year-on-year. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP slipped back into stagnation after modest growth in Q2. On average, the unadjusted GDP climbed 0.3% in the first three quarters of 2025.
On the production side, services remained the main drivers of economic expansion, according to the CSO, while industrial and agricultural production continued to weigh on GDP growth. On the expenditure side, private consumption may have strengthened, amid the continuing negative growth contribution of investments and net export.
For 2025 as a whole, Kopint-Tárki expects the GDP to expand at a very modest rate of – or slightly below – 0.5%, since a significant upturn in either industry or exports remains unlikely even in the last quarter of 2025.

02.09.2025. GDP: strong consumption growth, external position deteriorates

The second estimate confirms that the unadjusted GDP was up 0.1% in the second quarter of 2025, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP climbed 0.4%. On the expenditure side, final domestic use shifted into higher gear, supported by household consumption expenditures, but also the upturn in inventories and expanding transfers in kind.
However, the growth impact of domestic demand was virtually offset by the downward effect of net export, mostly due to the surge in the import of goods.
On the production side, the accelerating contraction in drought-stricken agriculture was offset by the upturn in construction. While industry keeps suffering, market services growth gathered some speed.
We currently expect the GDP to grow by approximately 0.5% this year.

30.07.2025. GDP expanded at a symbolic rate

According to the first estimate, in the second quarter of 2025, the unadjusted GDP volume was up 0.1% year-on-year, while the seasonally and working day adjusted volume climbed 0.2%. Compared to the previous quarter, GDP expanded by 0.4%. On average, the unadjusted GDP stagnated in the first half of 2025, while seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was down 0.1% over the same period.
On the production side, services were the main drivers of economic growth while industrial and agricultural production weighed on GDP growth. On the expenditure side, private consumption may have gathered some steam, while investments likely continued to contract, amid the negative growth contribution of net export.
For 2025 as a whole, Kopint-Tárki expects the GDP to expand at a very modest rate of 0.5%, since the prospect of a significant upturn in industry and exports is increasingly unlikely.

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