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More than five decades in economic research. Balanced, independent and objective analysis and forecasts

Category: Macroeconomy

April 2023

Macroeconomic and public finance situation in 2022 (in Hungarian)

September 2022

Macroeconomic and fiscal developments in the first half of 2022

April 2022

Macroeconomic and fiscal developments in 2021

August 2021

Impacts of a changing world-economic environment (including Brexit) on the EU economy and on the Hungarian economy and state budget (in Hungarian)

August 2021

The impact of COVID-19, sustainability and socio-economic development on Hungary’s competitiveness

August 2021

Overview of the macro economy and public finances in the first half of 2021 (in Hungarian)

April 2021

Overview of the macro economy and public finances in 2020 (in Hungarian)

April - September 2020

Macroeconomic and public finance situation in 2019 and the first half of 2020 (in Hungarian)

September 2020

The Restart of European Economy and Its Impact on Central and Eastern Europe

February 2020

Study on factors influencing Hungarian companies’ innovation activities

January 2020

Some key factors of catching up of the Hungarian economy

2018

Budgetary position in the light of the world economic conditions (in Hungarian)

2016

The tendencies of trade in value-added in the OECD countries

2016

Survey and study paper on the Hungarian investment environment

2015

Productivity and convergence- the prospects of Hungary. Tendencies and correlations

2014

Methodological support for the determination of indicators and base value

2014

Preliminary study on macroeconomic and budgetary forecasting methodologies

2014

Shifts in the global economy and their impact on Hungarian export market possibilities, the economic growth and the general government budget

2014

Market survey scope on export credit insurance needs/options for SMEs

2014

Study on the compliance by member states on the time needed to get licences and permits to take up and perform the specific activity of an enterprise as from beginning of 2014

2013

Development of a micro-based macromodell

2013

Compilation of development cadastre on the completed developments

2013

The role of the German economy in Hungarian economic performance

2013

Expert evaluation network: delivering policy analysis on the performance of cohesion policy 2007-2013

2012

Support to the creation of Cohesion Policy position: the rippling effect of the Central Hungarian region

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Economic forecasts

2025
Fact
2026
Forecast
2027
Forecast
GDP 0.5% 2.0% 2.5%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -2.8% 4.7% 5.5%
Industrial Production -3.2% 1.3% 3.0%
Gross Salaries 9.0% 9.2% 7.0%
Unemployment Rate* 4.4% 4.8% 4.5%
Current+Capital Account** 2.1% 1.5% 1.0%
General Government** -4.7% -6.0% -4.8%
Consumer Price Index* 4.4% 3.5% 3.7%
MNB Base Rate*** 6.5% 5.5% 4.5%
10-Year Yield*** 6.79% 7.3% 6.8%
*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

Kopint-Tárki commentary

30.01.2026. GDP grew only at a symbolic pace again in Q4

According to the first estimate, GDP grew by an unadjusted rate of 0.7% and a seasonally and calendar-adjusted rate of 0.5% in the last quarter of 2025. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP was up 0.2% after stagnating in Q3. On average, the unadjusted GDP climbed 0.4% in 2025, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 0.3% over the previous year.
On the production side, services remained the main drivers of economic growth while construction also supported economic expansion to a degree. Industrial production continued to weigh on GDP growth. Services growth may have noticeably accelerated. On the expenditure side, private consumption may have gained momentum but also net export probably dragged down growth more severely than before.
As for this year, Kopint-Tárki expects GDP to expand at a modest rate of 2%.

02.12.2025. GDP: weakening consumption growth, deteriorating external position, change in inventories turns the tables

The second estimate confirms that both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 0.6% in Q3 2025. Compared to the previous quarter, however, the GDP remained flat. The overall growth rate in the first three quarters was 0.3%.
On the expenditure side, most components actually deteriorated, including private and public consumption growth rates. The net external trade position also worsened spectacularly. A dramatic turn in the change in inventories was the only reason the year-on-year rate of GDP – and final domestic use – growth accelerated in the third quarter.
On the production side, the contraction in agriculture and industry moderated in the third quarter, while services growth accelerated minimally – due to government services.
We currently expect the GDP to grow at a rate below 0.5% this year.

03.03.2026. GDP: accelerating consumption growth, no improvement in external trade

According to the second estimate, GDP grew by an unadjusted year-on-year rate of 0.8% and a seasonally and calendar-adjusted rate of 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Compared to the previous quarter, the GDP was up 0.2%. On an annual average, GDP climbed 0.4% in 2025.
Some improvement was observed in most components of domestic demand, leading to a respectable growth rate of 3.8% in final domestic use.
On the other hand, net export dragged down economic growth even more than in the third quarter, due to an uptick in the growth in imports of both goods and services.
On the production side, the contraction in weather-stricken agriculture moderated significantly, industrial output continued to decline, while construction activity picked up. Services growth, however, lost momentum, despite the slight uptick in consumption growth.
Due to the absence of conditions for more spectacular recovery, a GDP growth rate of 2% can be seen as a best-case scenario for 2026.

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